Unveiling the lead exposure attributed burden in Iran from 1990 to 2019 through the lens of the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

This study aimed to investigate the estimated burden attributed to lead exposure (LE), at the national and subnational levels from 1990 to 2019 in Iran. The burden attributed to LE was determined through the estimation of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) using the comparative risk assessment method of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study presenting as age-standardized per 100,000 person year (PY) with 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UI). Furthermore, the burden of each disease were recorded independently. Eventually, the age-standardized YLLs, DALYs, deaths and YLDs rates attributed to LE demonstrated a decrease of 50.7%, 48.9%, 38.0%, and 36.4%, respectively, from 1990 to 2019. The most important causes of LE burden are divided into two acute and chronic categories: acute, mainly causes mental disorders (DALYs rate of 36.0 in 2019), and chronic, results in cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) (DALYs rate of 391.8) and chronic kidney diseases (CKDs) (DALYs rate of 26.6), with CVDs bearing the most significant burden. At the sub-national level, a decrease in burden was evident in most provinces; moreover, low and low-middle SDI provinces born the highest burden. The burden increased mainly by ageing and was higher in males than females. It was concluded that although the overall decrease in the burden; still it is high, especially in low and low-middle SDI provinces, in advanced ages and in males. Among IDID, CKDs and CVDs that are the most important causes of LE-attributed burden in Iran; CVDs bear the highest burden.

Epidemiological Insights into Diabetic Foot Amputation and its Correlates: A Provincial Study.

Background: Diabetic foot ulcer and potential subsequent lower extremity amputation are major complications of diabetes mellitus and are also prominent morbidity factors that could affect patients' quality of life. Objectives: This study aimed to assess the prevalence of diabetic foot amputation and explore correlates of amputation cause and type among subjects with diabetes mellitus in Tehran, Iran. Methods: A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted to assess the demographic, sociological, and clinical characteristics of subjects who had undergone lower extremity amputation due to diabetic foot ulcers, from 2011 to 2020, in two educational medical centers in Tehran, Iran. We examined the medical records of 4676 individuals who were admitted to Shariati and Sina hospitals due to diabetic foot issues. Information related to patient demographics (age, gender, marital status), social factors (education level, insurance), and clinical data (medical history, laboratory results, and characteristics of diabetic foot ulcers) was collected for subjects who had undergone lower extremity amputation due to diabetic foot ulcer. The collected data was reported using average values, standard deviations and proportions and analyzed using statistical tests. Results: During one decade, 882 out of 4676 (18.8%) patients with diabetic foot ulcers underwent lower extremity amputations of various types in Sina and Shariati hospitals in Tehran, Iran. Of these, 692 (14.5%) were included for further analysis in the study and the rest were excluded due to lack of sufficient recorded data. About 75.9% of the study population was male, and the average age including both sexes was 60 years. About 92.7% were married, and on average, subjects had been afflicted with diabetes mellitus for 15.1 years. Statistical analysis using Pearson's chi-square test showed there was a significant association between the treatment regimen for diabetes mellitus and the type of amputation (P = .01), as well as between the duration of the disease and the cause of amputation (P = .01) and its type (P = .04). Conclusion: diabetes mellitus related treatment regimen and duration of disease are significantly associated with amputation cause and type.

Understanding Why and How Diabetic Patients Lose Their Feet: A Study from Tehran, Iran This study explored patients with diabetes in Tehran, Iran, experience foot problems leading to amputation. We looked at the records of 4676 patients over a decade, finding that 18.8% had lower limb amputations. Key factors included treatment methods for diabetes and the duration of the disease, significantly impacting the cause and type of amputation. These insights can guide better care to prevent such serious complications in patients with diabetes.

Global, regional, and national burden and quality of care index (QCI) of oral disorders: a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 1990-2017.

BACKGROUND: Oral disorders are still a major global public health challenge, considering their perpetuating and chronic nature. Currently, there is no direct index to measure the quality of care on a population scale. Hence, we aim to propose a new index to measure the quality of care for oral disorders worldwide. METHODS: We generated our database using the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2017. Among different variables such as prevalence, incidence, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years, we utilised principal component analysis (PCA) to determine the component that bears the greatest proportion of information to generate the novel quality of care index (QCI) for oral disorders. RESULTS: Global QCI for oral disorders gradually increased from 1990 to 2017 (from 70.5 to 74.6). No significant gender disparity was observed during this period, and the gender disparity ratio (GDR) was considered optimal in 1990 and 2017. Between 1990 and 2017, the age-standardised QCI for all oral disorders increased in all the SDI regions. The highest QCI for all oral disorders in 2017 belonged to high-middle SDI countries (=80.24), and the lowest YLDs rate was seen in the low SDI quintile. In 1990, the quality of care in European, Central Asian, and Central and South American countries was in the lowest quintiles, whereas the North American, East Asian, Middle Eastern, and some African countries had the highest quality of dental care. Maynmar (=100), Uganda (=92.5), Taiwan (=92.0), China (=92.5), and the United States (=89.2) were the five countries with the highest age-standardised QCI. Nicaragua (=41.3), Belgium (=40.2), Venezuela (=38.4), Sierra Leone (=30.5), and the Gambia (=30.3) were the five countries with the least age-standardised QCI values. CONCLUSION: The quality of care for all oral disorders showed an increasing trend on a global scale from 1990 to 2017. However, the QCI distribution was not homogenous among various regions. To prevent the exacerbation of imminent disparities in this regard, better attention to total tooth loss in high-income countries and prioritising primary healthcare provision in low-income countries are recommended for oral disorders.

Burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its risk factors in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) in the North Africa and Middle East region is alarmingly high, prompting us to investigate the burden and factors contributing to it through the GBD study. Additionally, there is a lack of knowledge about the epidemiological status of T2DM in this region, so our aim is to provide a comprehensive overview of the burden of T2DM and its associated risk factors. METHODS: Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study, we calculated the attributable burden of T2DM for each of the 21 countries in the region for the years 1990 and 2019. This included prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, there was a significant increase in the age-standardized incidence (79.6%; 95% Uncertainty Interval: 75.0 to 84.5) and prevalence (85.5%; [80.8 to 90.3]) rates of T2DM per 100,000 populations. The age-standardized mortality rate (1.7%; [-10.4 to 14.9]), DALYs (31.2%; [18.3 to 42.2]), and years lived with disability (YLDs) (82.6%; [77.2 to 88.1]) also increased during this period. Modifiable risk factors, such as high body mass index (56.4%; [42.8 to 69.8]), low physical activity (15.5%; [9.0 to 22.8]), and ambient particulate matter pollution (20.9%; [15.2 to 26.2]), were the main contributors to the number of deaths. CONCLUSION: The burden of T2DM, in terms of mortality, DALYs, and YLDs, continues to rise in the region. The incidence rate of T2DM has increased in many areas. The burden of T2DM attributed to modifiable risk factors continues to grow in most countries. Targeting these modifiable risk factors could effectively reduce the growth and disease burden of T2DM in the region.

Global, regional, and national quality of care index of cervical and ovarian cancer: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Cervical cancer is the most preventable and ovarian cancer is the most lethal gynecological cancer. However, in the world, there are disparities in health care performances resulting in differences in the burden of these cancers. The objective of this study was to compare the health-system quality of care and inequities for these cancers using the Quality of Care Index (QCI). MATERIAL AND METHODS: The 1990-2019 data of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) was analyzed to extract rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years of Life Lost (YLL), and Years of healthy life lost due to disability (YLD) of cervical and ovarian cancer. Four indices were developed as a proxy for the quality of care using the above-mentioned rates. Thereafter, a Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was applied to construct the Quality of Care Index (QCI) as a summary measure of the developed indices. RESULTS: The incidence of cervical cancer decreased from 1990 to 2019, whereas the incidence of ovarian cancer increased between these years. However, the mortality rate of both cancers decreased in this interval. The global age-standardized QCI for cervical cancer and ovarian cancer were 43.1 and 48.5 in 1990 and increased to 58.5 and 58.4 in 2019, respectively. QCI for cervical cancer and ovarian cancer generally decreased with aging, and different age groups had inequitable QCIs. Higher-income countries generally had higher QCIs for both cancers, but exceptions were also observed. CONCLUSIONS: Uncovering disparities in cervical and ovarian cancer care across locations, Socio-Demographic Index levels, and age groups necessitate urgent improvements in healthcare systems for equitable care. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions and prompt future research to explore root causes and effective strategies for narrowing these gaps.

The global, regional, and national burden and quality of care index of kidney cancer; a global burden of disease systematic analysis 1990-2019.

Kidney cancer (KC) is a prevalent cancer worldwide. The incidence and mortality rates of KC have risen in recent decades. The quality of care provided to KC patients is a concern for public health. Considering the importance of KC, in this study, we aim to assess the burden of the disease, gender and age disparities globally, regionally, and nationally to evaluate the quality and inequities of KC care. The 2019 Global Burden of Disease study provides data on the burden of the KC. The secondary indices, including mortality-to-incidence ratio, disability-adjusted life years -to-prevalence ratio, prevalence-to-incidence ratio, and years of life lost-to-years lived with disability ratio, were utilized. These four newly merged indices were converted to the quality-of-care index (QCI) as a summary measure using principal component analysis. QCI ranged between 0 and 100, and higher amounts of QCI indicate higher quality of care. Gender disparity ratio was calculated by dividing QCI for females by males to show gender inequity. The global age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of KC increased by 29.1% (95% uncertainty interval 18.7-40.7) and 11.6% (4.6-20.0) between 1990 and 2019, respectively. Globally, the QCI score for KC increased by 14.6% during 30 years, from 71.3 to 81.6. From 1990 to 2019, the QCI score has increased in all socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles. By 2019, the highest QCI score was in regions with a high SDI (93.0), and the lowest was in low SDI quintiles (38.2). Based on the World Health Organization regions, the QCI score was highest in the region of America, with Canada having the highest score (99.6) and the lowest in the African Region, where the Central African Republic scored the lowest (17.2). In 1990, the gender disparity ratio was 0.98, and in 2019, it was 0.97 showing an almost similar QCI score for females and males. Although the quality of care for KC has improved from 1990 to 2019, there is a significant gap between nations and different socioeconomic levels. This study provides clinicians and health authorities with a global perspective on the quality of care for KC and identifies the existing disparities.

Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease and Its Attributable Risk Factors in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990 to 2019: Results From the GBD Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: The North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region has one of the highest burdens of ischemic heart disease (IHD) worldwide. This study reports the contemporary epidemiology of IHD in NAME. METHODS AND RESULTS: We estimated the incidence, prevalence, deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and premature mortality of IHD, and its attributable risk factors in NAME from 1990 to 2019 using the results of the GBD (Global Burden of Disease study 2019). In 2019, 0.8 million lives and 18.0 million DALYs were lost due to IHD in NAME. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized DALY rate of IHD significantly decreased by 33.3%, mostly due to the reduction of years of life lost rather than years lived with disability. In 2019, the proportion of premature death attributable to IHD was higher in NAME compared with global measures: 26.8% versus 16.9% for women and 18.4% versus 14.8% for men, respectively. The age-standardized DALY rate of IHD attributed to metabolic risks, behavioral risks, and environmental/occupational risks significantly decreased by 28.7%, 37.8%, and 36.4%, respectively. Dietary risk factors, high systolic blood pressure, and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were the top 3 risks contributing to the IHD burden in most countries of NAME in 2019. CONCLUSIONS: In 2019, IHD was the leading cause of death and lost DALYs in NAME, where premature death due to IHD was greater than the global average. Despite the great reduction in the age-standardized DALYs of IHD in NAME from 1990 to 2019, this region still had the second-highest burden of IHD in 2019 globally.

Burden and quality of care index of chronic kidney disease: Global Burden of Disease analysis for 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) imposes a heavy obscure burden on individuals and health systems. Besides its burden, the quality of care of CKD is less well investigated. In this study, we aimed to explore the global, regional and national trends of CKD burden and quality of care. METHODS: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 data were used. Trends of incidence, prevalence, deaths and disability-adjusted life years were studied for the 1990-2019 period in the global aspect. By generating four secondary indices to assess different aspects of quality of care the quality of care index (QCI) was developed to explore the care provided for CKD. Inequities and disparities between various geographic, socio-demographic and age stratifications, and sex were studied using the QCI values. RESULTS: In 2019, there were 18 986 903 (95% uncertainty interval 17 556 535 to 20 518 156) incident cases of CKD, globally. The overall global QCI score had increased slightly from 78.4 in 1990 to 81.6 in 2019, and it was marginally better in males (QCI score 83.5) than in females (80.3). The highest QCI score was observed in the European region with a score of 92.5, while the African region displayed the lowest QCI with 61.7. Among the age groups, the highest QCI was for children aged between 5 and 9 years old (92.0), and the lowest was in the age group of 20-24 year olds (65.5). CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed that significant disparities remain regarding the quality of care of CKD, and to reach better care for CKD, attention to and care of minorities should be reconsidered. The evidence presented in this study would benefit health policymakers toward better and more efficient control of CKD burden alongside improving the care of this condition.

National and subnational burden of leukemia and its risk factors, 1990-2019: Results from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Hematologic malignancies have a great essential role in cancer global burden. Leukemia which two major subtypes based on the onset, is one of the common subtypes of this malignancy. METHOD: For the GBD 2019 study, cancer registry data and vital registration system were used to estimate leukemia mortality. The Meta-Regression-Bayesian Regularized Trimmed (MR-BRT), Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) and Spatiotemporal Gaussian Process Regression (ST-GPR) were used to model our data and estimate each quantity of interest. Mortality to incidence ratios (MIR) were used to generate incidence and survival from mortality rate. Prevalence and survival were used to generate years lived with disability (YLDs). Age-specific mortality and life expectancy at the same age were used to estimate years of life lost (YLLs). The sum of YLLs and YLDs generates DALYs. RESULTS: The total national incidence of leukemia increased from 6092 (UI 95%: 3803-8507) in 1990 to 6767 (4646-7890) new cases in 2019. However, leukemia age-standardized incidence ratio(ASIR) decreased from 11.6 (8-14.8) to 8.9 (6.2-10.3) new cases per 100,000 in this exact period. At the national level, deaths from leukemia increased 1.5-fold between 1990 and 2019, from 3287 (2284-4201) to 4424 (3137-5030), whereas the age-standardized death rate(ASDR) decreased from 8.3 (6.1-9.8) in 1990 to 6 (4.3-6.8) per 100,000 in 2019. In the study period, total leukemia DALYs decreased 12.2% and reached 162850 (110681-188806), in 2019. The age-standardized DALYs decreased 36.7% from 324.3 (224.8-413.4) in 1990 to 205.3 (140.3-237.8) in 2019. ASDR, DALYs, YLLs, and YLDs rate to high BMI was increasing while smoking and occupational exposure to benzene and formaldehyde were decreasing in the study period. CONCLUSION: This study provided a better understanding of leukemia burden and to reduce controversies of leukemia across Iran. The leukemia status alteration of the country, is trackable.

The burden of rheumatoid arthritis and low back pain in North Africa and Middle East from 1990 to 2019: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and low back pain (LBP) are among the most prevalent musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs). The need for investigation of regional and local patterns of these two MSDs seems inevitable for better policy-making. The current study presents updated results of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 and reports the burden of RA and LBP in North Africa and Middle East (NAME) countries from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and risk factors, including high body mass index, occupational ergonomic factors, and smoking, were extracted based on the GBD 2019 data. RESULTS: The age-standardized prevalence and mortality of RA were 120.6 (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 107.0-135.7) and 0.1 (95% UI 0.1-0.2) per 100 000 population in 2019 with 28.3% (95% UI 25.5%-30.9%) increase and 7.5% (95% UI -37.5% to 32.5%) decrease since 1990, respectively. Turkey had the highest age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of RA in 2019. All RA burden measures were higher for women; however, the incidence was almost the same at ages greater than 65 years. The age-standardized prevalence and DALYs of LBP were 7668.2 (95% UI 6798.0-8636.3) and 862 (95% UI 605.5-1153.3) in 2019, which had decreased by 5.8% (95% UI -7.4% to -4.3%) and 6.0% (95% UI -7.7% to -4.2%) since 1990, respectively. Moreover, although Turkey had the highest incidence and prevalence in 1990, Iran was at the top in 2019. The regional age-standardized DALY rates due to RA and LBP attributed to smoking were 1.7 (95% UI 0.5-3.2) and 139.4 (95% UI 87.3-198.8) in 2019, respectively, which had decreased 2.2% (95% UI -19.2% to 13.7%) and 15.4% (95% UI -19.4% to -10.5%) since 1990, respectively. CONCLUSION: RA still imposes a significant burden in the NAME region as the burden measures have increased from 1990 to 2019. On the other hand, regarding LBP, a decreasing pattern was observed. Differences among the countries and between ages and genders can have implications, and the results of this study may be helpful for policy-makers in the NAME countries.

A Global, Regional, and National Survey on Burden and Quality of Care Index of Multiple Sclerosis: Global Burden of Disease Systematic Analysis 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a common neurologic autoimmune disorder. We have used a newly introduced measure, Quality of Care Index (QCI), which is associated with the efficacy of care given to patients suffering from MS. OBJECTIVES: The aims of the study were to report and compare the quality of care given to MS patients in different regions and country. METHODS: Primary measures were retrieved from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) from 1990 to 2019. Secondary measures (mortality-to-incidence ratio, DALY-to-prevalence ratio, prevalence-to-incidence ratio, and YLL-to-YLD ratio) were combined using principal component analysis, to form an essential component (QCI) (0-100 index with higher values representing better condition). RESULTS: In 2019, there were 59,345 (95% UI: 51,818-66,943) new MS incident cases globally. Global QCI of 88.4 was calculated for 2019. At national level, Qatar had the highest quality of care (100) followed by Kuwait (98.5) and Greenland (98.1). The lowest QCI was observed in Kiribati (13.5), Nauru (31.5), and Seychelles (36.3), respectively. Most countries have reached gender equity during the 30 years. Also, QCI was lowest in ages from 55 to 80 in global scale. CONCLUSION: MS QCI is better among those countries of higher socioeconomic status, possibly due to better healthcare access and early detection in these regions. Countries could benefit from adopting the introduced QCI to evaluate the quality of care given to MS patients at national and global level.

Particulate Matter Pollution Remains a Threat for Cardiovascular Health: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2019.

Background Particulate matter (PM) pollution is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, causing substantial disease burden and deaths worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the global burden of cardiovascular diseases attributed to PM from 1990 to 2019. Methods and Results We used the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) study 2019 to investigate disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and deaths attributed to PM as well as its subgroups. It was shown that all burden measures' age-standardized rates for PM were in the same decreasing trend, with the highest decline recorded for deaths (-36.7%). However, the all-age DALYs increased by 31%, reaching 8.9 million in 2019, to which YLLs contributed the most (8.2 million [95% uncertainty interval, 7.3 million-9.2 million]). Men had higher deaths, DALYs, and YLLs despite lower years lived with disability in 2019 compared with women. There was an 8.1% increase in the age-standardized rate of DALYs for ambient PM; however, household air pollution from solid fuels decreased by 65.4% in the assessed period. Although higher in men, the low and high sociodemographic index regions had the highest and lowest attributed YLLs/YLDs ratio for PM pollution in 2019, respectively. Conclusions Although the total age-standardized rate of DALYs for PM-attributed cardiovascular diseases diminished from 1990 to 2019, the global burden of PM on cardiovascular diseases has increased. The differences between men and women and between regions have clinical and policy implications in global health planning toward more exact funding and resource allocation, in addition to addressing inequity in health care access.

Metabolic risk factors attributed burden in Iran at national and subnational levels, 1990 to 2019.

Introduction: Metabolic risk factors (MRFs) predispose populations to a variety of chronic diseases with a huge burden globally. With the increasing burden of these risk factors in Iran, in this study, we aimed to report the estimated burden attributed to MRFs at national and subnational scales in Iran, from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Based on the comparative risk assessment method of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019, data of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to four top MRFs in Iran including high systolic blood pressure (SBP), high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), high body mass index (BMI), and high low-density lipoprotein (LDL) for the 1990-2019 period, were extracted. The socio-demographic index (SDI) was used to report the data based on the corresponding socio-economic stratifications. The results were reported in national and subnational 31 provinces of Iran to discover disparities regarding the attributable burden to MRFs. Furthermore, we reported the causes of diseases to which the attributable burden to MRFs was related. Results: Overall, the age-standardized high LDL, high SBP, high BMI, and high FPG-attributed death rate changed by -45.1, -35.6, +2.8, and +19.9% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. High SBP was the leading risk factor regarding attributed age-standardized death rates reaching 157.8 (95% uncertainty interval: 135.3-179.1) and DALY rates reaching 2973.4 (2652.2-3280.2) per 100,000 person-years, in 2019. All rates increased with aging, and men had higher rates except for the +70 years age group. At the subnational level, provinces in the middle SDI quintile had the highest death and DALY rates regarding all four MRFs. Total deaths, DALYs, YLLs and YLDs number by the causes of diseases linked to MRFs increased over the study period. Cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, and kidney diseases were the main causes of burden of disease attributable to MRFs. Conclusion: Herein, we found divergent patterns regarding the burden of MRFs as well as disparities in different regions, sex, and age groups for each risk factor and related causes. This could provide policymakers with a clearer vision toward more appropriate decision-making and resource allocation to prevent the burden of MRFs in Iran.

Global, regional, and national burden and quality of care index (QCI) of bipolar disorder: A systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Bipolar disorders (BD) are significant debilitating mental problems. Here, we introduced a novel index as a representative of the quality of care delivered to BD patients worldwide. METHODS: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study was the primary data source on BD, including prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs). Secondary indices were created and transformed into a single component that accounted for most of the variation, using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method. This component, reported on a scale of 0 to 100, was presented as the quality of care index (QCI). The QCI was estimated in different age groups and areas within a 30-year time frame. Gender disparity ratio (GDR), as the female-to-male ratio of the QCI, was reported. RESULTS: The Global QCI slightly increased from 50.4 in 1990 to 53.1 in 2019. The GDR value was 0.95 in 2019. The high-middle SDI quintile had the highest QCI estimate of 63.0, and the lowest QCI value of 36.9 was regarding the low SDI quintile. Western-Pacific Region and South-East Asia had the highest and lowest QCI among WHO regions, with estimates of 70.7 and 31.2, respectively. The age group of 20 to 24 years old patients reported the lowest QCI estimate of 30.2, and the highest QCI of 59.8 was regarding 40 to 44 years old patients. CONCLUSION: The QCI in BD had only a subtle increase from 1990 to 2019 and is in need of further improvement. Inequalities between different regions and age groups are considerable and require proper attention.

Burden of autism spectrum disorders in North Africa and Middle East from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) encompass a range of neurodevelopmental disorders that affect the patient's communication and behavior. There are some reports about the increasing prevalence of ASD in recent decades, mostly due to the improvement in diagnosis and screening status. Few studies suggested a lower prevalence of ASD in North Africa and Middle East compared to more developed regions. The aim of this study is to provide a comprehensive outlook of ASD in the region. METHODS: We used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data from 1990 to 2019 in North Africa and Middle East, which is one of the seven super regions of the GBD categorization. In this study, we reported the epidemiologic indices, including prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for ASD in the 21 countries of the super region. We also compared these indices between the countries based on their sociodemographic index (SDI) which was calculated according to income per capita, mean education, and fertility rate. RESULTS: Age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of ASD in the region is 304.4 (95% uncertainty interval 251.2-366.1) per 100,000 in 2019 with less than one percentage change since 1990. Age-standardized YLDs and incidence rates were 46.4 (30.4-67.5) and 7.7 (6.3-9.3) per 100,000 in 2019. The ASPR was 2.9 times greater in males compared to females in 2019. The highest age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and YLD rates among the countries were seen in Iran in 2019 (370.3, 9.3, and 56.4 per 100,000, respectively). High SDI countries had higher age-standardized YLDs rates compared to the other countries of the region. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, the trends of age-standardized epidemiologic indices remained approximately steady through the years 1990-2019 in the region. Though, there was a wide discrepancy between the countries of the region. The difference of YLDs among the countries of this region is related to the SDI of the countries. Monetary and public awareness status are the SDI factors that may affect the quality of life of ASD patients in the region. This study provides valuable information for governments and health systems to implement policies for maintaining the improving trend, achieving more timely diagnosis, and bettering the supportive actions in this region.

Effect of air pollution on disease burden, mortality, and life expectancy in North Africa and the Middle East: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution is the sixth highest risk factor for attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in North Africa and the Middle East, but the relative importance of different subtypes of air pollution and any potential differences in their health effects by population demographics or country-level socioeconomic factors have not been fully explored. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of high ambient particulate matter less than 2·5 µm in size (PM) and ambient ozone air pollution on disease burden, mortality, and life expectancy in 21 countries in the North Africa and the Middle East super-region from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates. METHODS: The study data were derived from GBD 2019, examining data from 1999 to 2019 in North Africa and the Middle East. In this study, the types of air pollution investigated included PM pollution and ambient ozone pollution. PM pollution itself was categorised as household air pollution from solid fuels and ambient PM pollution. The burden attributable to each risk factor, directly or indirectly, was incorporated in the population attributable fraction to estimate the total attributable deaths and DALYs. The summary exposure value (SEV) as the relative risk-weighted prevalence of exposure was extracted to compare the distribution of excess risk times the exposure level in a population where everyone is at maximum risk and ranges from zero (no excess risk exists in a population) to 100 (highest risk). The effect of air pollution on life expectancy was estimated via a cause-deleted life table analysis. FINDINGS: The age-standardised DALYs rate attributable to air pollution declined by 44·5%, from 4884·2 (95% uncertainty interval 4381·5-5555·4) to 2710·4 (2317·3-3125·6) per 100 000 from 1990 to 2019. Afghanistan (6992·3, 5627·7-8482·7), Yemen (4212·4, 3241·3-5418·1), and Egypt (4034·8, 3027·7-5138·6) had the highest age-standardised DALYs rates attributable to air pollution in 2019 per 100 000, whereas Türkiye (1329·2, 1033·7-1654·7), Jordan (1447·3, 1154·2-1758·5), and Iran (1603·0, 1404·7-1813·8) had the lowest rates. During the study period, the age-standardised SEV of air pollution (PM and ambient ozone in total) decreased by 10·9% (5·8-17·7%) in the super-region, whereas the SEV of ambient ozone pollution alone increased by 7·7% (0·7-14·3%). Among the components of PM pollution, the SEV of ambient PM pollution increased by 40·1% (25·2-63·7%); however, the SEV of household air pollution from solid fuels decreased by 70·6% (64·1-77·0%). Among the investigated types of air pollution, 98·9% of the DALYs from air pollution in the super-region were attributable to PM pollution. If air pollution had been lowered to the theoretical minimum risk exposure levels for 2019, then the average life expectancy would have been 1·6 years higher. INTERPRETATION: The burden attributable to air pollution substantially decreased in the study period across the super-region as a whole. Most of the burden from air pollution is attributed to PM pollution, the exposure to which has substantially increased in the past three decades. Interventions and policies that reduce population exposure to PM pollution could potentially increase the average life expectancy in the super-region. This finding calls for concerted efforts from governments and public health authorities in the super-region to tackle air pollution as an important threat to population health. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Low bone mineral density, a neglected condition in North Africa and Middle East: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study, 1990-2019.

Due to the high prevalence of low bone mineral density in North Africa and Middle East region, estimating its attributable burden would help to a better understanding of this neglected condition for policymakers and health researchers. This study presented the number of attributable deaths has doubled from 1990 to 2019. PURPOSE: This study provides the latest estimates of the burden of low bone mineral density (BMD) from 1990 to 2019 in North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region. METHODS: The data were extracted from the global burden of disease (GBD) 2019 study to estimate epidemiological indices such as deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and summary exposure value (SEV). SEV is a measure of the exposure of the population to a risk factor that considers the amount of exposure by the level of risk. RESULTS: Our findings showed that in 1990-2019, the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to low BMD had almost doubled in the region and caused 20,371 (95% uncertainty intervals: 14,848-24,374) deaths and 805,959 (630,238-959,581) DALYs in 2019. However, DALYs and death rates showed a decreasing trend after age standardization. Saudi Arabia had the highest, and Lebanon had the lowest age-standardized DALYs rates in 2019, with rates of 434.2 (329.6-534.3) and 90.3 (70.6-112.1) per 100,000, respectively. The highest burden attributable to low BMD was in the 90-94 and over 95 age groups. Also, there was a decreasing trend in age-standardized SEV to low BMD for both sexes. CONCLUSION: Despite the decreasing trend of age-standardized burden indices, considerable amounts of deaths and DALYs were attributable to low BMD, especially in the elderly population, in the region in 2019. As the positive effects of proper interventions will be detectable in the long term, robust strategies and comprehensive stable policies are the ultimate solutions to achieving desired goals.

National and subnational burden of female and male breast cancer and risk factors in Iran from 1990 to 2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) is one of the most burdensome cancers worldwide. Despite advancements in diagnostic and treatment modalities, developing countries are still dealing with increasing burdens and existing disparities. This study provides estimates of BC burden and associated risk factors in Iran at the national and subnational levels over 30 years (1990-2019). METHODS: Data on BC burden for Iran were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study from 1990 to 2019. GBD estimation methods were applied to explore BC incidence, prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and attributable burden to risk factors based on the GBD risk factors hierarchy. Moreover, decomposition analysis was performed to find the contribution of population growth, aging, and cause-specific incidence in the total incidence change. Age-standardized rates (per 100,000 population) and 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) were reported based on sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI). RESULTS: Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased from 18.8 (95% UI 15.3-24.1)/100,000 in 2019 to 34.0 (30.7-37.9)/100,000 in 2019 among females and from 0.2/100,000 (0.2-0.3) to 0.3/100,000 (0.3-0.4) among males. Age-standardized deaths rate (ASDR) increased slightly among females from 10.3 (8.2-13.6)/100,000 in 1990 to 11.9 (10.8-13.1)/100,000 in 2019 and remained almost the same among males-0.2/100,000 (0.1-0.2). Age-standardized DALYs rate also increased from 320.2 (265.4-405.4) to 368.7 (336.7-404.3) among females but decreased slightly in males from 4.5 (3.5-5.8) to 4.0 (3.5-4.5). Of the 417.6% increase in total incident cases from 1990-2019, 240.7% was related to cause-specific incidence. In both genders, the BC burden increased by age, including age groups under 50 before routine screening programs, and by SDI levels; the high and high-middle SDI regions had the highest BC burden in Iran. Based on the GBD risk factors hierarchy, high fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and alcohol were estimated to have the most and the least attributed DALYs for BC among females, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: BC burden increased from 1990 to 2019 in both genders, and considerable discrepancies were found among different provinces and SDI quintiles in Iran. These increasing trends appeared to be associated with social and economic developments and changes in demographic factors. Improvements in registry systems and diagnostic capacities were also probably responsible for these growing trends. Raising general awareness and improving screening programs, early detection measures, and equitable access to healthcare systems might be the initial steps to tackle the increasing trends.

Predicting Iran's achievement to Sustainable Development Goal 3.2: A systematic analysis of neonatal mortality with scenario-based projections to 2030.

BACKGROUND: Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 (SDG 3.2) is to reduce Under-5 and neonatal mortality rates (U5MR and NMR), two major health systems' performance indicators, globally by 2030. We aimed to report Iran's U5MR and NMR status during 2010-2017 and its achievement of SDG 3.2 by 2030, using scenario-based projection. STUDY DESIGN: To estimate the national and subnational levels of U5MR and NMR, we applied an Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging (EBMA) with Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Spatio_temporal models. We used all available data sources including: 12-year data from the Death Registration System (DRS), two censuses, and a demographic and health surveys (DHS). This study employed two approaches, Maternal Age Cohort (MAC) and Maternal Age Period (MAP), to analyze summary birth history data obtained from censuses and DHS. In addition, we calculated the child mortality rate directly from DHS using the complete birth history method. National and subnational NMR was projected up to 2030 with a scenario-based method using average Annual Rate of Reduction (ARR) introduced by UN-IGME. RESULTS: In 2017, national U5MR and NMR were 15·2 (12·4-18·0) and 11·8 (10·4-13·2), with an average ARR of 5·1% (2·1-8·9) and 3·1% (0·9-5·8) during 2010-2017, respectively. According to our projection scenarios, 17 provinces have not fulfilled SDG 3.2 for NMR yet, and the current trend (the current trend of NMR improvement in Iran) will not result in reaching SDG for some provinces by 2030; However, if each province has the same neonatal mortality annual reduction rate as the best-performing province in the same region, besides achieving SDG, the national NMR will be reduced to 5·2, and almost 92,000 newborn lives will be saved. CONCLUSIONS: Iran has achieved SDG3.2 regarding U5MR and NMR; however, there are provincial inequalities. For all provinces to reach SDG3.2, health policies should focus on reducing provincial inequalities by precise planning for neonatal health care.

The burden of childhood and adolescent cancers in North Africa and the Middle East (NAME) region: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the significant burden of childhood and adolescent cancers, no specific studies recently discussed the burden of cancer in this group in the North Africa and the Middle East (NAME) region. Therefore, we aimed to study the burden of cancers in this group in this region. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrieved the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data for children and adolescent cancers (0-19 years old) in the NAME region from 1990 to 2019. 21 types of neoplasms were grouped as "neoplasms", comprising 19 specific cancer groups as well as "other malignant neoplasms" and "other neoplasms". Three significant parameters of incidence, deaths, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were studied. The data are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI), and reported rates per 100,000. RESULTS: In 2019, almost 6 million (95% UI: 4.166 M-8.405 M) new cases and 11,560(9770-13,578) deaths due to neoplasms occurred in the NAME region. Incidence was higher in females (3.4 M), while deaths (6226 of overall 11,560) and DALYs (501,118 of overall 933,885) were estimated as higher in males. Incidence rates did not significantly change since 1990, while deaths and DALYs rates declined significantly. After excluding "other malignant neoplasms" and "other neoplasms", leukemia was responsible for the highest number of incidence and deaths (incidence: 10,629(8237-13,081), deaths: 4053(3135-5013), followed by brain and central nervous system cancers (incidence: 5897(4192-7134), deaths: 2446(1761-2960)), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (incidence: 2741 (2237-3392), deaths: 790(645-962)). Incidence rates of neoplasms were similar for most countries, but countries varied more in terms of death rates. Afghanistan 8.9(6.5-11.9), Sudan 6.4(4.5-8.6), and the Syrian Arab Republic 5.6(4.3-8.3) had the highest overall death rates. CONCLUSION: The NAME region is observing relatively constant incidence rates and a decreasing pattern in the deaths and DALYs. Despite this success, several countries are lagging behind in development. Different issues such as economic problems, armed conflicts and political instabilities, lack of equipment or experienced staff or poor distribution, stigmatization and disbelief in the healthcare systems account for unfavorable numbers in some countries. Such problems require urgent solutions as new sophisticated and personalized cares raise the alarm for even more inequalities between high and low-income countries.